Monday, January 05, 2009

Global Financial Crisis : Its Origin

           Yeh jo world hai naa world….. yeh har waqt kissi naa kissi se ladta hi rehta hai….. Chahe who Terrorism ho ya phir religion ya phir “Financial crisis”…Yes the most recent problem before the World economy is the ongoing Financial crisis started in the US supposedly by the negligence of the “Big Brother” :- The Federal Reserve… The negligence is already accepted by the former head of the FED, Mr. Allan Greenspan in front of the U.S. Senate.
           The financial crisis or the “credit crunch”, is more popularly known as the “sub-prime crisis”. The credit crunch means that there is no liquidity in the market, less of cash flow and more of assets whose value is rapidly falling. It all started in America with the “sub-prime mortgage loan”.
           It begins like this: an American wanting to live the famed American dream, “having a house”. So he seeks a loan, a “housing loan” But the issue is that he does not have enough credit to back the loan. Here comes the dream of another American, this time a Bank who sanctions the loan, which is more likely to be defaulted and thereby taking risk. Now the bank invests this money somewhere and the chain is built. So a bubble is made, fondly called “a housing bubble”.
           Now when someone in the chain defaulted, usually starting with the people lower down the chain, the investors started losing faith in the “securitized mortgages” and alas, the so called Housing Bubble bursts :-‘bhooommm’ and gave way to a liquidity crisis….. Indeed, a dangerous equation. The whole business based on mortgages and derivatives received a knee jerk. At this point of time the government had to step in and inject volumes of cash and bail-outs to keep their economy on track
           The first victims were the banks which have a highly leveraged nature, the “investment banks”. Remember, Bear Sterns, now acquired by JP Morgan Chase, was the first of the bail-outs. Those who did not seek bailouts even when there conditions was very bad, “Mooh ke bal ghir gaye”….. Guess whom I am pointing towards. “Lehman Brothers”, aapprox 150 year old institution, had to file for Bankruptcy. Two pillars of the US investment banking had already affected one shattered and the other collapsed. The next in the list was Merrill Lynch which is now acquired by Bank of America. Many others included Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and Washington Mutual etc.
           It adds fuel to a decade old debate that the “investment bank” cannot sustain itself; it needs to be controlled under a “commercial bank”. It’s like once the investor looses its confidence in the company or an organization or any institution for that matter the equation worsens the respective. The American government has given a bail out package of 700 billion USD to restore the economy and win back the confidence to the investor and get the cash flowing again in the market.
           Still the economy is under recession. And it might some time to get back on the growth track… But this does not end here. There are a lot many aftermaths …. I would soon be making another post to discuss them… for the time I would like to invite readers to discuss This particular issue.....

8 comments:

  1. Just to add to it, the economies world over are feeling the pinch of this recession is because the US's so called bright investors have invested their money in the growing economy markets....so once their own economy was in trouble they started backing out of other markets, hence creating a severe credit crunch world over and making hte Recession Global.

    Yash Patel

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  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  3. And why did the world's biggest banks sanction mortgages which are not 'secure'?

    I can't buy that the banks are as stupid as the sentence sounds.. We are talking about Lehmann, JP Morgan chase and Bear Stearns, not maharastra co-op soc, for godssake..

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  4. hii santosh,
    It is like High Risk ,high gain... u invest in a business like this... the gain is huge.... but if u loose, the loss is huge....so they call this business.the mortgage business is a one like it!!!

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  5. first up wud like to thank my friend Rohit for giving me the actual ans to FROM WHERE DID IT ALL START....
    may b i can attempt a "XAT" Essay in a better way going fwd..so dude jst keep it up and keep sharing your knowldge.
    u know KT sessions do help :P

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  6. Good to know that my blog has helped someone... I will write more abt in future...

    XAT essay ... so the post shud have been done earlier...Alas
    so i m good at KT's ...

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  7. Couldn't help Commenting on this, I really hope you dont mind .But the Subprime Mortgage crisis has it's roots in no control of central agencies or federal agencies in case of US on Investment bankers.The Indian Banks have been Isolated from this meltdown for this reason of greater control on banks by the RBI(i.e. no bank is going bankrupt).
    There are always two sides to a coin if you see the financial crisis has brought about good dips in the OIL prices and the property prices.For eg lets take Mumbai the property prices before, when the subprime crisis was just abt to hit the US were not even sky but heavenly high.Inflated to an extent that I dont have words(personal view thou).
    The Inflation index has decreased in India for sure.
    In a global market which will and always have it's root on credits, liquidity is not going to bother much.There might be a hiccup but not stagnancy.
    We have to worry abt. stagnancy in the economy not slowing down of it.
    Yours truly,
    Hope you dont mind the Comment,
    Neil.(Yash's Friend)

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  8. Neil....first of all thnx for reading the blog and posting the comment.I agree to the fact that "Subprime Mortgage crisis had it's roots in no control of central agencies or federal agencies in case of US on Investment bankers".One reason for it was the independent working of the investment banks without control of a commercial bank or any other agency. The main problem was not the bursting of the housing bubble but the liquidity crunch caused by it.It eventually led to the global meltdown.
    I would also add to ur reasoning of the isolation of Indian banks from this is that the Indian banking sector is not much Globalized.
    Although the meltdown brought down the inflation it is now leading to more unemployment, thereby reducing the net income and hence minimizing , if not nullifying the benefit of price drop.
    May be The global financial crisis was one of the reasons for Satyam Fiasco???
    The US economy is actually into Recession.If we talk abt the Indian economy we are not into recession but far below our benchmark growth of 8% for this fiscal year.Yes , the situation is not worst in India but still a slowdown.

    And comments are welcome... having a discussion is always good ...

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